確率2%のくじ引きで100万人が当たりを引くまでチャレンジするシミュレーション

だいたい2%くらいの確率でドロップするっぽいGraf Zeppelinのドロップ。けれど実感としては2%なんて嘘だろう? そんなことを思ってしまうくらい苦しんでいるプレイヤーの姿が目について、いくらなんでもしぼりすぎだ、などなど、巷に怨嗟の声がこだましています。

さて、先日書いた確率2%のくじ引きをシミュレートするというスクリプト。今回はそれを少し書き直して、100万人が当たりを引くまで試行するようにしてみました。だいたい総試行回数は5千万回くらいになるようです。

前回、意外や1回目の試行で入手するケースが多い、だなんて驚いていましたが、これは別に不思議でも意外でもない当たり前のことで、2%で当たりが出るくじ引き。1回目のくじ引きで、100万の2%である2万人が当たりを引く。2回目は100万から2万を引くところの、98万の2%、19万6千人が当たりを引く、といった具合に、徐々に減っていくのが当たり前。実際、この記事の末尾に実行結果を載せていますが、それもほぼそのようになっていて、人間の感覚と理屈の乖離というものを実感させられます。

以前、ドロップする確率を入力すると、だいたいどれくらいの回数で、どれくらいの入手見込みがあるかを計算するスクリプトを書いたことがありました。

それによると2%のくじ引きだとこんな結果が出ます。

20% 12
50% 35
80% 80
90% 114
95% 149
98% 194
99% 228
99.999% 570

この目安と今回の実行結果、それを比較してみると、入手したプレイヤーの割り合いが2割を超えるのは、確かに12回試行した時で、50%は35回試行、80%も90%も計算のとおりに出ます。95%は148回試行と1回の差が生じて、99%は229回と今度は1回多くなってしまって、と、このあたりは本当に小さな誤差ですけれど、おそらくは試行回数をもっともっと増やしていくと、計算によって想定される回数にもっともっと近付いていくのでしょう。

さて、今回の結果だけをもって書いてしまいますが、ほぼ5千万回試行。49,915,914回ですが、場合によっては5千万を超えることもあります。これを入手者数100万人で割ると49.9回。ということは、50回くらいで入手するのが平均、標準、普通ってところなのかなと思ったところで、いや、これ、平均じゃなくて中央値を出さないといかんのじゃないか?

とまあ、そう思ったところで、計算する気はないんですけどね。

データはCSVで出力してるので、表計算ソフトに放り込んで計算させたら一発というのは理解してますが、今回はそれをする手間を惜しんでおこうと思います。

# -*- coding: utf-8-unix; mode: python -*-
import random

result = dict()
clg = 0
acquirer = 0

while acquirer < 1000000:
    cnt = 0
    havenot = True
    while havenot:
        cnt += 1
        clg += 1
        if random.randrange(50) == 1:
            if cnt in result:
                result[cnt] += 1
            else:
                result[cnt] = 1
            acquirer += 1
            havenot = False

total = 0
for key in range(max(result.keys()) + 1):
    if key in result:
        total += result[key]
        line = '{0:>5}, {1:>5}, {2:.4%}, {3:>7}, {4:.4%}'
        print(line.format(key,
                          result[key],
                          result[key] / acquirer,
                          total,
                          total / acquirer))
    elif key == 0:
        pass
    else:
        print('{0:>5},     0, 0%     ,        , 0%'.format(key))
print()
print('acquirer: {0:,}'.format(acquirer))
print('number of trials: {0:,}'.format(clg))
    1, 20242, 2.0242%,   20242, 2.0242%
    2, 19680, 1.9680%,   39922, 3.9922%
    3, 19444, 1.9444%,   59366, 5.9366%
    4, 18773, 1.8773%,   78139, 7.8139%
    5, 18517, 1.8517%,   96656, 9.6656%
    6, 18002, 1.8002%,  114658, 11.4658%
    7, 17604, 1.7604%,  132262, 13.2262%
    8, 17234, 1.7234%,  149496, 14.9496%
    9, 17084, 1.7084%,  166580, 16.6580%
   10, 16763, 1.6763%,  183343, 18.3343%
   11, 16334, 1.6334%,  199677, 19.9677%
   12, 16092, 1.6092%,  215769, 21.5769%
   13, 15718, 1.5718%,  231487, 23.1487%
   14, 15469, 1.5469%,  246956, 24.6956%
   15, 15049, 1.5049%,  262005, 26.2005%
   16, 14906, 1.4906%,  276911, 27.6911%
   17, 14334, 1.4334%,  291245, 29.1245%
   18, 13969, 1.3969%,  305214, 30.5214%
   19, 14082, 1.4082%,  319296, 31.9296%
   20, 13646, 1.3646%,  332942, 33.2942%
   21, 13379, 1.3379%,  346321, 34.6321%
   22, 13122, 1.3122%,  359443, 35.9443%
   23, 12687, 1.2687%,  372130, 37.2130%
   24, 12644, 1.2644%,  384774, 38.4774%
   25, 12275, 1.2275%,  397049, 39.7049%
   26, 12191, 1.2191%,  409240, 40.9240%
   27, 11940, 1.1940%,  421180, 42.1180%
   28, 11541, 1.1541%,  432721, 43.2721%
   29, 11328, 1.1328%,  444049, 44.4049%
   30, 11159, 1.1159%,  455208, 45.5208%
   31, 10890, 1.0890%,  466098, 46.6098%
   32, 10662, 1.0662%,  476760, 47.6760%
   33, 10271, 1.0271%,  487031, 48.7031%
   34, 10161, 1.0161%,  497192, 49.7192%
   35, 10241, 1.0241%,  507433, 50.7433%
   36,  9793, 0.9793%,  517226, 51.7226%
   37,  9554, 0.9554%,  526780, 52.6780%
   38,  9395, 0.9395%,  536175, 53.6175%
   39,  9221, 0.9221%,  545396, 54.5396%
   40,  9002, 0.9002%,  554398, 55.4398%
   41,  8804, 0.8804%,  563202, 56.3202%
   42,  8821, 0.8821%,  572023, 57.2023%
   43,  8518, 0.8518%,  580541, 58.0541%
   44,  8319, 0.8319%,  588860, 58.8860%
   45,  8144, 0.8144%,  597004, 59.7004%
   46,  8168, 0.8168%,  605172, 60.5172%
   47,  7775, 0.7775%,  612947, 61.2947%
   48,  7792, 0.7792%,  620739, 62.0739%
   49,  7637, 0.7637%,  628376, 62.8376%
   50,  7601, 0.7601%,  635977, 63.5977%
   51,  7300, 0.7300%,  643277, 64.3277%
   52,  7264, 0.7264%,  650541, 65.0541%
   53,  6997, 0.6997%,  657538, 65.7538%
   54,  7022, 0.7022%,  664560, 66.4560%
   55,  6883, 0.6883%,  671443, 67.1443%
   56,  6564, 0.6564%,  678007, 67.8007%
   57,  6567, 0.6567%,  684574, 68.4574%
   58,  6382, 0.6382%,  690956, 69.0956%
   59,  6237, 0.6237%,  697193, 69.7193%
   60,  6154, 0.6154%,  703347, 70.3347%
   61,  5881, 0.5881%,  709228, 70.9228%
   62,  5680, 0.5680%,  714908, 71.4908%
   63,  5661, 0.5661%,  720569, 72.0569%
   64,  5545, 0.5545%,  726114, 72.6114%
   65,  5420, 0.5420%,  731534, 73.1534%
   66,  5352, 0.5352%,  736886, 73.6886%
   67,  5205, 0.5205%,  742091, 74.2091%
   68,  5105, 0.5105%,  747196, 74.7196%
   69,  5094, 0.5094%,  752290, 75.2290%
   70,  4921, 0.4921%,  757211, 75.7211%
   71,  4926, 0.4926%,  762137, 76.2137%
   72,  4892, 0.4892%,  767029, 76.7029%
   73,  4648, 0.4648%,  771677, 77.1677%
   74,  4509, 0.4509%,  776186, 77.6186%
   75,  4558, 0.4558%,  780744, 78.0744%
   76,  4456, 0.4456%,  785200, 78.5200%
   77,  4198, 0.4198%,  789398, 78.9398%
   78,  4202, 0.4202%,  793600, 79.3600%
   79,  4050, 0.4050%,  797650, 79.7650%
   80,  4130, 0.4130%,  801780, 80.1780%
   81,  4016, 0.4016%,  805796, 80.5796%
   82,  3910, 0.3910%,  809706, 80.9706%
   83,  3713, 0.3713%,  813419, 81.3419%
   84,  3847, 0.3847%,  817266, 81.7266%
   85,  3615, 0.3615%,  820881, 82.0881%
   86,  3569, 0.3569%,  824450, 82.4450%
   87,  3572, 0.3572%,  828022, 82.8022%
   88,  3397, 0.3397%,  831419, 83.1419%
   89,  3453, 0.3453%,  834872, 83.4872%
   90,  3355, 0.3355%,  838227, 83.8227%
   91,  3212, 0.3212%,  841439, 84.1439%
   92,  3140, 0.3140%,  844579, 84.4579%
   93,  3119, 0.3119%,  847698, 84.7698%
   94,  3032, 0.3032%,  850730, 85.0730%
   95,  2981, 0.2981%,  853711, 85.3711%
   96,  2917, 0.2917%,  856628, 85.6628%
   97,  2909, 0.2909%,  859537, 85.9537%
   98,  2850, 0.2850%,  862387, 86.2387%
   99,  2694, 0.2694%,  865081, 86.5081%
  100,  2787, 0.2787%,  867868, 86.7868%
  101,  2591, 0.2591%,  870459, 87.0459%
  102,  2648, 0.2648%,  873107, 87.3107%
  103,  2578, 0.2578%,  875685, 87.5685%
  104,  2382, 0.2382%,  878067, 87.8067%
  105,  2489, 0.2489%,  880556, 88.0556%
  106,  2381, 0.2381%,  882937, 88.2937%
  107,  2381, 0.2381%,  885318, 88.5318%
  108,  2322, 0.2322%,  887640, 88.7640%
  109,  2356, 0.2356%,  889996, 88.9996%
  110,  2138, 0.2138%,  892134, 89.2134%
  111,  2183, 0.2183%,  894317, 89.4317%
  112,  2053, 0.2053%,  896370, 89.6370%
  113,  2117, 0.2117%,  898487, 89.8487%
  114,  2064, 0.2064%,  900551, 90.0551%
  115,  2040, 0.2040%,  902591, 90.2591%
  116,  1944, 0.1944%,  904535, 90.4535%
  117,  1855, 0.1855%,  906390, 90.6390%
  118,  1877, 0.1877%,  908267, 90.8267%
  119,  1867, 0.1867%,  910134, 91.0134%
  120,  1873, 0.1873%,  912007, 91.2007%
  121,  1744, 0.1744%,  913751, 91.3751%
  122,  1729, 0.1729%,  915480, 91.5480%
  123,  1664, 0.1664%,  917144, 91.7144%
  124,  1663, 0.1663%,  918807, 91.8807%
  125,  1667, 0.1667%,  920474, 92.0474%
  126,  1625, 0.1625%,  922099, 92.2099%
  127,  1530, 0.1530%,  923629, 92.3629%
  128,  1592, 0.1592%,  925221, 92.5221%
  129,  1477, 0.1477%,  926698, 92.6698%
  130,  1463, 0.1463%,  928161, 92.8161%
  131,  1441, 0.1441%,  929602, 92.9602%
  132,  1434, 0.1434%,  931036, 93.1036%
  133,  1387, 0.1387%,  932423, 93.2423%
  134,  1371, 0.1371%,  933794, 93.3794%
  135,  1388, 0.1388%,  935182, 93.5182%
  136,  1274, 0.1274%,  936456, 93.6456%
  137,  1197, 0.1197%,  937653, 93.7653%
  138,  1291, 0.1291%,  938944, 93.8944%
  139,  1214, 0.1214%,  940158, 94.0158%
  140,  1295, 0.1295%,  941453, 94.1453%
  141,  1161, 0.1161%,  942614, 94.2614%
  142,  1137, 0.1137%,  943751, 94.3751%
  143,  1188, 0.1188%,  944939, 94.4939%
  144,  1135, 0.1135%,  946074, 94.6074%
  145,  1025, 0.1025%,  947099, 94.7099%
  146,  1012, 0.1012%,  948111, 94.8111%
  147,   991, 0.0991%,  949102, 94.9102%
  148,   989, 0.0989%,  950091, 95.0091%
  149,  1001, 0.1001%,  951092, 95.1092%
  150,   994, 0.0994%,  952086, 95.2086%
  151,   990, 0.0990%,  953076, 95.3076%
  152,   975, 0.0975%,  954051, 95.4051%
  153,   946, 0.0946%,  954997, 95.4997%
  154,   879, 0.0879%,  955876, 95.5876%
  155,   886, 0.0886%,  956762, 95.6762%
  156,   892, 0.0892%,  957654, 95.7654%
  157,   840, 0.0840%,  958494, 95.8494%
  158,   861, 0.0861%,  959355, 95.9355%
  159,   802, 0.0802%,  960157, 96.0157%
  160,   817, 0.0817%,  960974, 96.0974%
  161,   801, 0.0801%,  961775, 96.1775%
  162,   781, 0.0781%,  962556, 96.2556%
  163,   773, 0.0773%,  963329, 96.3329%
  164,   729, 0.0729%,  964058, 96.4058%
  165,   735, 0.0735%,  964793, 96.4793%
  166,   651, 0.0651%,  965444, 96.5444%
  167,   675, 0.0675%,  966119, 96.6119%
  168,   649, 0.0649%,  966768, 96.6768%
  169,   662, 0.0662%,  967430, 96.7430%
  170,   689, 0.0689%,  968119, 96.8119%
  171,   645, 0.0645%,  968764, 96.8764%
  172,   614, 0.0614%,  969378, 96.9378%
  173,   637, 0.0637%,  970015, 97.0015%
  174,   598, 0.0598%,  970613, 97.0613%
  175,   557, 0.0557%,  971170, 97.1170%
  176,   566, 0.0566%,  971736, 97.1736%
  177,   563, 0.0563%,  972299, 97.2299%
  178,   557, 0.0557%,  972856, 97.2856%
  179,   552, 0.0552%,  973408, 97.3408%
  180,   541, 0.0541%,  973949, 97.3949%
  181,   473, 0.0473%,  974422, 97.4422%
  182,   507, 0.0507%,  974929, 97.4929%
  183,   508, 0.0508%,  975437, 97.5437%
  184,   536, 0.0536%,  975973, 97.5973%
  185,   475, 0.0475%,  976448, 97.6448%
  186,   463, 0.0463%,  976911, 97.6911%
  187,   485, 0.0485%,  977396, 97.7396%
  188,   420, 0.0420%,  977816, 97.7816%
  189,   434, 0.0434%,  978250, 97.8250%
  190,   448, 0.0448%,  978698, 97.8698%
  191,   437, 0.0437%,  979135, 97.9135%
  192,   436, 0.0436%,  979571, 97.9571%
  193,   418, 0.0418%,  979989, 97.9989%
  194,   401, 0.0401%,  980390, 98.0390%
  195,   405, 0.0405%,  980795, 98.0795%
  196,   404, 0.0404%,  981199, 98.1199%
  197,   349, 0.0349%,  981548, 98.1548%
  198,   375, 0.0375%,  981923, 98.1923%
  199,   365, 0.0365%,  982288, 98.2288%
  200,   361, 0.0361%,  982649, 98.2649%
  201,   352, 0.0352%,  983001, 98.3001%
  202,   332, 0.0332%,  983333, 98.3333%
  203,   316, 0.0316%,  983649, 98.3649%
  204,   297, 0.0297%,  983946, 98.3946%
  205,   316, 0.0316%,  984262, 98.4262%
  206,   316, 0.0316%,  984578, 98.4578%
  207,   291, 0.0291%,  984869, 98.4869%
  208,   303, 0.0303%,  985172, 98.5172%
  209,   328, 0.0328%,  985500, 98.5500%
  210,   278, 0.0278%,  985778, 98.5778%
  211,   283, 0.0283%,  986061, 98.6061%
  212,   237, 0.0237%,  986298, 98.6298%
  213,   249, 0.0249%,  986547, 98.6547%
  214,   256, 0.0256%,  986803, 98.6803%
  215,   251, 0.0251%,  987054, 98.7054%
  216,   263, 0.0263%,  987317, 98.7317%
  217,   232, 0.0232%,  987549, 98.7549%
  218,   212, 0.0212%,  987761, 98.7761%
  219,   266, 0.0266%,  988027, 98.8027%
  220,   227, 0.0227%,  988254, 98.8254%
  221,   212, 0.0212%,  988466, 98.8466%
  222,   221, 0.0221%,  988687, 98.8687%
  223,   212, 0.0212%,  988899, 98.8899%
  224,   210, 0.0210%,  989109, 98.9109%
  225,   210, 0.0210%,  989319, 98.9319%
  226,   213, 0.0213%,  989532, 98.9532%
  227,   215, 0.0215%,  989747, 98.9747%
  228,   197, 0.0197%,  989944, 98.9944%
  229,   177, 0.0177%,  990121, 99.0121%
  230,   206, 0.0206%,  990327, 99.0327%
  231,   201, 0.0201%,  990528, 99.0528%
  232,   186, 0.0186%,  990714, 99.0714%
  233,   175, 0.0175%,  990889, 99.0889%
  234,   193, 0.0193%,  991082, 99.1082%
  235,   176, 0.0176%,  991258, 99.1258%
  236,   171, 0.0171%,  991429, 99.1429%
  237,   189, 0.0189%,  991618, 99.1618%
  238,   182, 0.0182%,  991800, 99.1800%
  239,   146, 0.0146%,  991946, 99.1946%
  240,   176, 0.0176%,  992122, 99.2122%
  241,   154, 0.0154%,  992276, 99.2276%
  242,   142, 0.0142%,  992418, 99.2418%
  243,   162, 0.0162%,  992580, 99.2580%
  244,   156, 0.0156%,  992736, 99.2736%
  245,   150, 0.0150%,  992886, 99.2886%
  246,   132, 0.0132%,  993018, 99.3018%
  247,   124, 0.0124%,  993142, 99.3142%
  248,   110, 0.0110%,  993252, 99.3252%
  249,   136, 0.0136%,  993388, 99.3388%
  250,   155, 0.0155%,  993543, 99.3543%
  251,   125, 0.0125%,  993668, 99.3668%
  252,   126, 0.0126%,  993794, 99.3794%
  253,   120, 0.0120%,  993914, 99.3914%
  254,   128, 0.0128%,  994042, 99.4042%
  255,   107, 0.0107%,  994149, 99.4149%
  256,   129, 0.0129%,  994278, 99.4278%
  257,   109, 0.0109%,  994387, 99.4387%
  258,   124, 0.0124%,  994511, 99.4511%
  259,   100, 0.0100%,  994611, 99.4611%
  260,   103, 0.0103%,  994714, 99.4714%
  261,   108, 0.0108%,  994822, 99.4822%
  262,   108, 0.0108%,  994930, 99.4930%
  263,   100, 0.0100%,  995030, 99.5030%
  264,    93, 0.0093%,  995123, 99.5123%
  265,    99, 0.0099%,  995222, 99.5222%
  266,   108, 0.0108%,  995330, 99.5330%
  267,    61, 0.0061%,  995391, 99.5391%
  268,    99, 0.0099%,  995490, 99.5490%
  269,    92, 0.0092%,  995582, 99.5582%
  270,    90, 0.0090%,  995672, 99.5672%
  271,    85, 0.0085%,  995757, 99.5757%
  272,    99, 0.0099%,  995856, 99.5856%
  273,    66, 0.0066%,  995922, 99.5922%
  274,    93, 0.0093%,  996015, 99.6015%
  275,   102, 0.0102%,  996117, 99.6117%
  276,    64, 0.0064%,  996181, 99.6181%
  277,    74, 0.0074%,  996255, 99.6255%
  278,    84, 0.0084%,  996339, 99.6339%
  279,    70, 0.0070%,  996409, 99.6409%
  280,    76, 0.0076%,  996485, 99.6485%
  281,    77, 0.0077%,  996562, 99.6562%
  282,    74, 0.0074%,  996636, 99.6636%
  283,    69, 0.0069%,  996705, 99.6705%
  284,    72, 0.0072%,  996777, 99.6777%
  285,    52, 0.0052%,  996829, 99.6829%
  286,    85, 0.0085%,  996914, 99.6914%
  287,    50, 0.0050%,  996964, 99.6964%
  288,    56, 0.0056%,  997020, 99.7020%
  289,    44, 0.0044%,  997064, 99.7064%
  290,    64, 0.0064%,  997128, 99.7128%
  291,    58, 0.0058%,  997186, 99.7186%
  292,    37, 0.0037%,  997223, 99.7223%
  293,    57, 0.0057%,  997280, 99.7280%
  294,    58, 0.0058%,  997338, 99.7338%
  295,    63, 0.0063%,  997401, 99.7401%
  296,    63, 0.0063%,  997464, 99.7464%
  297,    56, 0.0056%,  997520, 99.7520%
  298,    44, 0.0044%,  997564, 99.7564%
  299,    42, 0.0042%,  997606, 99.7606%
  300,    59, 0.0059%,  997665, 99.7665%
  301,    46, 0.0046%,  997711, 99.7711%
  302,    44, 0.0044%,  997755, 99.7755%
  303,    37, 0.0037%,  997792, 99.7792%
  304,    60, 0.0060%,  997852, 99.7852%
  305,    43, 0.0043%,  997895, 99.7895%
  306,    49, 0.0049%,  997944, 99.7944%
  307,    31, 0.0031%,  997975, 99.7975%
  308,    42, 0.0042%,  998017, 99.8017%
  309,    49, 0.0049%,  998066, 99.8066%
  310,    37, 0.0037%,  998103, 99.8103%
  311,    41, 0.0041%,  998144, 99.8144%
  312,    34, 0.0034%,  998178, 99.8178%
  313,    45, 0.0045%,  998223, 99.8223%
  314,    32, 0.0032%,  998255, 99.8255%
  315,    32, 0.0032%,  998287, 99.8287%
  316,    39, 0.0039%,  998326, 99.8326%
  317,    32, 0.0032%,  998358, 99.8358%
  318,    24, 0.0024%,  998382, 99.8382%
  319,    34, 0.0034%,  998416, 99.8416%
  320,    41, 0.0041%,  998457, 99.8457%
  321,    26, 0.0026%,  998483, 99.8483%
  322,    28, 0.0028%,  998511, 99.8511%
  323,    34, 0.0034%,  998545, 99.8545%
  324,    44, 0.0044%,  998589, 99.8589%
  325,    24, 0.0024%,  998613, 99.8613%
  326,    33, 0.0033%,  998646, 99.8646%
  327,    26, 0.0026%,  998672, 99.8672%
  328,    25, 0.0025%,  998697, 99.8697%
  329,    15, 0.0015%,  998712, 99.8712%
  330,    21, 0.0021%,  998733, 99.8733%
  331,    28, 0.0028%,  998761, 99.8761%
  332,    18, 0.0018%,  998779, 99.8779%
  333,    20, 0.0020%,  998799, 99.8799%
  334,    23, 0.0023%,  998822, 99.8822%
  335,    28, 0.0028%,  998850, 99.8850%
  336,    24, 0.0024%,  998874, 99.8874%
  337,    25, 0.0025%,  998899, 99.8899%
  338,    24, 0.0024%,  998923, 99.8923%
  339,    22, 0.0022%,  998945, 99.8945%
  340,    20, 0.0020%,  998965, 99.8965%
  341,    21, 0.0021%,  998986, 99.8986%
  342,    10, 0.0010%,  998996, 99.8996%
  343,    21, 0.0021%,  999017, 99.9017%
  344,    17, 0.0017%,  999034, 99.9034%
  345,    19, 0.0019%,  999053, 99.9053%
  346,    18, 0.0018%,  999071, 99.9071%
  347,    20, 0.0020%,  999091, 99.9091%
  348,    20, 0.0020%,  999111, 99.9111%
  349,    13, 0.0013%,  999124, 99.9124%
  350,    15, 0.0015%,  999139, 99.9139%
  351,    15, 0.0015%,  999154, 99.9154%
  352,    14, 0.0014%,  999168, 99.9168%
  353,    14, 0.0014%,  999182, 99.9182%
  354,    13, 0.0013%,  999195, 99.9195%
  355,    12, 0.0012%,  999207, 99.9207%
  356,    11, 0.0011%,  999218, 99.9218%
  357,    14, 0.0014%,  999232, 99.9232%
  358,     9, 0.0009%,  999241, 99.9241%
  359,    14, 0.0014%,  999255, 99.9255%
  360,    16, 0.0016%,  999271, 99.9271%
  361,    13, 0.0013%,  999284, 99.9284%
  362,    17, 0.0017%,  999301, 99.9301%
  363,    18, 0.0018%,  999319, 99.9319%
  364,    12, 0.0012%,  999331, 99.9331%
  365,    11, 0.0011%,  999342, 99.9342%
  366,    11, 0.0011%,  999353, 99.9353%
  367,    12, 0.0012%,  999365, 99.9365%
  368,    11, 0.0011%,  999376, 99.9376%
  369,    12, 0.0012%,  999388, 99.9388%
  370,    14, 0.0014%,  999402, 99.9402%
  371,    14, 0.0014%,  999416, 99.9416%
  372,    17, 0.0017%,  999433, 99.9433%
  373,    13, 0.0013%,  999446, 99.9446%
  374,    10, 0.0010%,  999456, 99.9456%
  375,    10, 0.0010%,  999466, 99.9466%
  376,    12, 0.0012%,  999478, 99.9478%
  377,    10, 0.0010%,  999488, 99.9488%
  378,    14, 0.0014%,  999502, 99.9502%
  379,    11, 0.0011%,  999513, 99.9513%
  380,    10, 0.0010%,  999523, 99.9523%
  381,    11, 0.0011%,  999534, 99.9534%
  382,     7, 0.0007%,  999541, 99.9541%
  383,    13, 0.0013%,  999554, 99.9554%
  384,     8, 0.0008%,  999562, 99.9562%
  385,     7, 0.0007%,  999569, 99.9569%
  386,     8, 0.0008%,  999577, 99.9577%
  387,     8, 0.0008%,  999585, 99.9585%
  388,     9, 0.0009%,  999594, 99.9594%
  389,     3, 0.0003%,  999597, 99.9597%
  390,     9, 0.0009%,  999606, 99.9606%
  391,     7, 0.0007%,  999613, 99.9613%
  392,    16, 0.0016%,  999629, 99.9629%
  393,     4, 0.0004%,  999633, 99.9633%
  394,     7, 0.0007%,  999640, 99.9640%
  395,     3, 0.0003%,  999643, 99.9643%
  396,     2, 0.0002%,  999645, 99.9645%
  397,    14, 0.0014%,  999659, 99.9659%
  398,     6, 0.0006%,  999665, 99.9665%
  399,     6, 0.0006%,  999671, 99.9671%
  400,     4, 0.0004%,  999675, 99.9675%
  401,     7, 0.0007%,  999682, 99.9682%
  402,     8, 0.0008%,  999690, 99.9690%
  403,    10, 0.0010%,  999700, 99.9700%
  404,     8, 0.0008%,  999708, 99.9708%
  405,     5, 0.0005%,  999713, 99.9713%
  406,     8, 0.0008%,  999721, 99.9721%
  407,     3, 0.0003%,  999724, 99.9724%
  408,     6, 0.0006%,  999730, 99.9730%
  409,    11, 0.0011%,  999741, 99.9741%
  410,     2, 0.0002%,  999743, 99.9743%
  411,     7, 0.0007%,  999750, 99.9750%
  412,     6, 0.0006%,  999756, 99.9756%
  413,     3, 0.0003%,  999759, 99.9759%
  414,     4, 0.0004%,  999763, 99.9763%
  415,     5, 0.0005%,  999768, 99.9768%
  416,     6, 0.0006%,  999774, 99.9774%
  417,     5, 0.0005%,  999779, 99.9779%
  418,     5, 0.0005%,  999784, 99.9784%
  419,     3, 0.0003%,  999787, 99.9787%
  420,     6, 0.0006%,  999793, 99.9793%
  421,     2, 0.0002%,  999795, 99.9795%
  422,    12, 0.0012%,  999807, 99.9807%
  423,     4, 0.0004%,  999811, 99.9811%
  424,     2, 0.0002%,  999813, 99.9813%
  425,     4, 0.0004%,  999817, 99.9817%
  426,     3, 0.0003%,  999820, 99.9820%
  427,     7, 0.0007%,  999827, 99.9827%
  428,     5, 0.0005%,  999832, 99.9832%
  429,     5, 0.0005%,  999837, 99.9837%
  430,     4, 0.0004%,  999841, 99.9841%
  431,     4, 0.0004%,  999845, 99.9845%
  432,     3, 0.0003%,  999848, 99.9848%
  433,     2, 0.0002%,  999850, 99.9850%
  434,     6, 0.0006%,  999856, 99.9856%
  435,     4, 0.0004%,  999860, 99.9860%
  436,     3, 0.0003%,  999863, 99.9863%
  437,     2, 0.0002%,  999865, 99.9865%
  438,     4, 0.0004%,  999869, 99.9869%
  439,     1, 0.0001%,  999870, 99.9870%
  440,     3, 0.0003%,  999873, 99.9873%
  441,     6, 0.0006%,  999879, 99.9879%
  442,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  443,     2, 0.0002%,  999881, 99.9881%
  444,     1, 0.0001%,  999882, 99.9882%
  445,     6, 0.0006%,  999888, 99.9888%
  446,     1, 0.0001%,  999889, 99.9889%
  447,     4, 0.0004%,  999893, 99.9893%
  448,     1, 0.0001%,  999894, 99.9894%
  449,     5, 0.0005%,  999899, 99.9899%
  450,     3, 0.0003%,  999902, 99.9902%
  451,     2, 0.0002%,  999904, 99.9904%
  452,     3, 0.0003%,  999907, 99.9907%
  453,     4, 0.0004%,  999911, 99.9911%
  454,     1, 0.0001%,  999912, 99.9912%
  455,     4, 0.0004%,  999916, 99.9916%
  456,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  457,     1, 0.0001%,  999917, 99.9917%
  458,     4, 0.0004%,  999921, 99.9921%
  459,     2, 0.0002%,  999923, 99.9923%
  460,     1, 0.0001%,  999924, 99.9924%
  461,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  462,     1, 0.0001%,  999925, 99.9925%
  463,     1, 0.0001%,  999926, 99.9926%
  464,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  465,     1, 0.0001%,  999927, 99.9927%
  466,     3, 0.0003%,  999930, 99.9930%
  467,     1, 0.0001%,  999931, 99.9931%
  468,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  469,     1, 0.0001%,  999932, 99.9932%
  470,     1, 0.0001%,  999933, 99.9933%
  471,     3, 0.0003%,  999936, 99.9936%
  472,     1, 0.0001%,  999937, 99.9937%
  473,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  474,     3, 0.0003%,  999940, 99.9940%
  475,     1, 0.0001%,  999941, 99.9941%
  476,     1, 0.0001%,  999942, 99.9942%
  477,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  478,     3, 0.0003%,  999945, 99.9945%
  479,     1, 0.0001%,  999946, 99.9946%
  480,     2, 0.0002%,  999948, 99.9948%
  481,     1, 0.0001%,  999949, 99.9949%
  482,     2, 0.0002%,  999951, 99.9951%
  483,     2, 0.0002%,  999953, 99.9953%
  484,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  485,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  486,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  487,     2, 0.0002%,  999955, 99.9955%
  488,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  489,     4, 0.0004%,  999959, 99.9959%
  490,     1, 0.0001%,  999960, 99.9960%
  491,     1, 0.0001%,  999961, 99.9961%
  492,     1, 0.0001%,  999962, 99.9962%
  493,     1, 0.0001%,  999963, 99.9963%
  494,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  495,     1, 0.0001%,  999964, 99.9964%
  496,     1, 0.0001%,  999965, 99.9965%
  497,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  498,     1, 0.0001%,  999966, 99.9966%
  499,     1, 0.0001%,  999967, 99.9967%
  500,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  501,     1, 0.0001%,  999968, 99.9968%
  502,     2, 0.0002%,  999970, 99.9970%
  503,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  504,     1, 0.0001%,  999971, 99.9971%
  505,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  506,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  507,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  508,     1, 0.0001%,  999972, 99.9972%
  509,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  510,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  511,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  512,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  513,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  514,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  515,     1, 0.0001%,  999973, 99.9973%
  516,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  517,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  518,     1, 0.0001%,  999974, 99.9974%
  519,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  520,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  521,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  522,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  523,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  524,     1, 0.0001%,  999975, 99.9975%
  525,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  526,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  527,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  528,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  529,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  530,     1, 0.0001%,  999976, 99.9976%
  531,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  532,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  533,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  534,     2, 0.0002%,  999978, 99.9978%
  535,     1, 0.0001%,  999979, 99.9979%
  536,     1, 0.0001%,  999980, 99.9980%
  537,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  538,     1, 0.0001%,  999981, 99.9981%
  539,     1, 0.0001%,  999982, 99.9982%
  540,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  541,     1, 0.0001%,  999983, 99.9983%
  542,     1, 0.0001%,  999984, 99.9984%
  543,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  544,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  545,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  546,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  547,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  548,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  549,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  550,     1, 0.0001%,  999985, 99.9985%
  551,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  552,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  553,     2, 0.0002%,  999987, 99.9987%
  554,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  555,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  556,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  557,     1, 0.0001%,  999988, 99.9988%
  558,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  559,     1, 0.0001%,  999989, 99.9989%
  560,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  561,     1, 0.0001%,  999990, 99.9990%
  562,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  563,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  564,     1, 0.0001%,  999991, 99.9991%
  565,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  566,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  567,     2, 0.0002%,  999993, 99.9993%
  568,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  569,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  570,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  571,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  572,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  573,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  574,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  575,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  576,     1, 0.0001%,  999994, 99.9994%
  577,     1, 0.0001%,  999995, 99.9995%
  578,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  579,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  580,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  581,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  582,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  583,     1, 0.0001%,  999996, 99.9996%
  584,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  585,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  586,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  587,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  588,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  589,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  590,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  591,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  592,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  593,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  594,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  595,     1, 0.0001%,  999997, 99.9997%
  596,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  597,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  598,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  599,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  600,     1, 0.0001%,  999998, 99.9998%
  601,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  602,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  603,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  604,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  605,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  606,     1, 0.0001%,  999999, 99.9999%
  607,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  608,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  609,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  610,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  611,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  612,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  613,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  614,     0, 0%     ,        , 0%
  615,     1, 0.0001%, 1000000, 100.0000%

acquirer: 1,000,000
number of trials: 49,915,914